Ashes third Test: betting preview

With Cummins and Lyon set to return, England are up against it in the fight to save our Christmas.

After just six days of cricket, it’s last-chance saloon for England. And in a must-win encounter for the tourists, the degree of difficulty will step up a notch with Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon set to return for Australia, bringing 871 Test wickets between them.

England fans will be pinning their hopes on a hard reset. The squad should be well-rested after a few days off in Noosa, and one wonders how much Ben Stokes’s “weak men” comments have been taken to heart. As Brendon McCullum indicated a few days ago, they’ve resisted calls to make wholesale team changes, and will trust largely the same group of players to make amends.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, from a betting perspective there’s little value in the outright market, with most of the angles coming in the fringe markets and in-play strategies.

Team news

England

As is their custom, England have announced their XI two days out, Josh Tongue replacing Gus Atkinson as the only change. There’s plenty to unpick here though.

I’ve been genuinely surprised by Tongue’s omission so far – he has the pace and bounce to trouble anyone, bowls more than his fair share of unplayable deliveries, and has an uncanny knack of blowing away the tail. He offers a point of difference too, with an angle coming from quite wide on the crease, and a slightly fuller length which should give the ball a chance to swing.

I’m by no means saying he’s the answer to all England’s woes, but I do think it’s a wise (and overdue) selection. Gus Atkinson has looked short of rhythm and it’s no surprise he’s the one to miss out.

I’m disappointed not to see Matty Potts in the team, but I understand why they’re giving Jofra Archer a chance to make up for his patchy performance to date. I assume he’s been given a firm kick up the backside from his captain about maintaining intensity, both with the ball and in the field.

I’ve read plenty of criticism of Brydon Carse, but he deserves to keep his spot as the workhorse of the attack. Someone needs to bowl the hard overs with the old ball, and England can’t afford to leave that job entirely to the captain.

There was speculation Shoaib Bashir would play, given the Adelaide surface is likely to turn later in the game, but he’s almost unselectable given his mediocre form with the Lions. Will Jacks offers as much with the ball and is light years ahead with the bat.

As far as the batting goes, Ollie Pope has been granted a stay of execution at three. In truth the time to drop him was the beginning of the English summer, not two Tests into this series with the Ashes on the line. In the absence of a back-up keeper, Jamie Smith keeps his place too.

Australia

Very few clues from the 15-man Australia squad, other than the expectation that Cummins and Lyon both return, in the place of Brendan Doggett and Michael Neser.

Usman Khawaja has declared himself fit and ready, but it would be somewhat surprising if he was picked given his lack of form. If selected, he could either open alongside Jake Weatherald or drop down the order.

England will be hoping he plays, but I think they’re more likely to stick with the promising Josh Inglis.

Ground statistics

The Adelaide Oval has a reputation as the best batting track in Australia, though in common with most Australian grounds, scores have been declining of late, likely due to the use of drop-in pitches.

It’s hard to read too much into the ground statistics – in the last ten years, seven of the nine Test matches have been day-nighters, with only two red-ball games.

If we go back 20 years there have been 11 red-ball games, producing eight results and three draws. On 10 of the 11 occasions the toss-winning captain opted to bat, but the eight results have been split equally between the team batting first and the team batting second. So it might not be a bad toss to lose. I have a sneaking suspicion that Stokes might revert to his bowl-first preference, whereas I’d expect Pat Cummins to bat given the choice, so the toss may be moot in any case.

The pitch is best for batting on days 1-3, with some deterioration thereafter bringing spinners into the game. A good old fashioned Test wicket.

Betting angles

Match result

Only the blindest of optimists could think of backing England at odds of around 5/2. But Australia don’t make much appeal at 1/2 either.

Given the likely nature of the surface, we could see biggish first innings scores here. This brings the draw into play, at least for trading purposes. Odds of 12/1 could easily halve if, for example, Australia make 400+ and England get off to a decent start.

As ever I’ll also be looking to back Australia if they trade odds-against at any point. England may not get into a winning position, but if they do, there’s a decent chance they’ll squander the opportunity.

Top first innings bat

With a flatter surface likely, it’s time to break with the strategy of looking to the lower middle order and cast our net higher up.

Harry Brook is an easy target for criticism when you set his abundant talent against the nature of his dismissals. It reminds me of the flak Kevin Pietersen used to get. But Brook has promised to adjust his approach, and he’s far too good not to make a big score at some point. I’ll be taking the 4/1 he can top score here.

The equivalent market for Australia is trickier, as we don’t know how they’ll line up. I’d be tempted by Travis Head if he returned to the number five slot. Steve Smith missed training due to illness yesterday, but he’s not considered in doubt for the XI. He looked in decent form in Brisbane and he’s my idea of a bet here at 3/1.

Top first innings bowler

With Cummins and Lyon returning, the Australian market has a nice shape to it. It’s too risky backing a spinner to top the charts in the first innings – unless England bat well, Lyon may not bowl many overs. Cummins’ return lengthens the price about Mitchell Starc, and with the left-armer in top form he’s the bet at 11/5.

For the tourists, Josh Tongue’s ability with the lower order makes him stand out at 3/1.

Other markets

Australia hit eight sixes to England’s three in Brisbane. Head, Inglis, Carey and Weatherald are just as capable of clearing the rope as England’s power hitters, and given the propensity for the latter to collapse in a heap, it’s hard to see why Australia are the outsiders in the ‘most match sixes’ market. They’re a decent bet at 7/5.

Recommended bets

• Match result, draw: 12/1 (look to trade out for a profit)

• Steve Smith, top Australia first-innings bat: 3/1

• Harry Brook, top England first-innings bat: 4/1

• Mitchell Starc, top Australia first-innings bowler: 11/5

• Josh Tongue, top England first-innings bowler: 3/1

• Australia, most match sixes, 7/5

• Look to back Australia at odds-against in-running

Conclusion

Of all the pitches this series, Adelaide might be the one to suit England’s batting line up. But given the manner of the two defeats so far on this tour, it’s hard to be optimistic. From an England perspective, hopefully Ben Stokes’s words have worked the oracle and we see better shot selection from the likes of Brook, more energy from Jamie Smith and a fired-up Jofra Archer back to his 95mph best.

Stranger things have happened.

Please England, keep our Christmas alive.