England face selection questions ahead of crucial Lord’s encounter

After being outplayed at Edgbaston, England may need to take bolder selection risks – particularly in the fast-bowling department.

For a team known for risk-taking on the field, England under Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum have been surprisingly conservative with selection. Consistency has been part of the ethos – giving players confidence and clarity about their roles – but the flipside is that England can sometimes persist too long with out-of-form or ill-suited options.

Now, with just three days between Edgbaston and Lord’s, some level of rotation seems inevitable – especially among the fast bowlers.

Heavy workloads and fast-bowling rotation

Josh Tongue got through 81 overs across the first two Tests. Chris Woakes bowled 82, and Brydon Carse 77. That’s a heavy burden in a condensed schedule, and Lord’s will likely bring at least one change in the pace unit.

Jofra Archer is fit and, by all accounts, raring to go. Gus Atkinson has rejoined the squad after recovering from a hamstring injury. Sam Cook – who made his debut in the Zimbabwe Test – and Jamie Overton round out the pool of seam options.

While McCullum stopped short of confirming Archer’s inclusion, the signs point to his return. Atkinson, meanwhile, has 19 wickets at just 10.94 from his two Lord’s Tests (albeit against lesser opposition), and is clearly well-suited to the venue. Still, picking both Archer and Atkinson – both coming off injuries – would be a bold move.

Chris Woakes is usually an automatic pick at Lord’s based on record alone: 32 wickets at 12.90. But at 36, and with a gruelling workload behind him, England may be tempted to rest him.

Sam Cook’s debut was underwhelming, and while Overton is an admirable cricketer, he’s never quite looked a Test-match bowler to my eyes.

Without full knowledge of fitness niggles, prediction is tricky – but if pushed, I’d expect England to go with Archer, Atkinson and Woakes.

Lord’s conditions – bounce, seam and (very little) spin

McCullum has reportedly requested a pitch with pace, bounce and some sideways movement. Whether he gets it is another question – but if the surface resembles the one used for the recent WTC final, seamers will dominate early, and the pitch will flatten later on.

Importantly, that WTC final saw spin play almost no role – Nathan Lyon went wicketless in 34 overs. That raises the question: does England need a specialist spinner at all?

Rethinking the spin strategy

Shoaib Bashir is an intriguing figure. He was plucked from near-obscurity, has an appealing high release point, and has taken plenty of wickets at Test level. But he’s offered little threat – and even less control – so far this series. His county record remains poor, and his inclusion is starting to feel more speculative than strategic.

If England were to pivot in future, Rehan Ahmed, Tom Hartley and Liam Dawson are all viable alternatives. But for now, it’s almost certain Bashir plays if England pick a specialist spinner.

There is, however, an argument for playing Jacob Bethell instead. With Root and Bethell offering part-time spin, and with the pitch unlikely to turn much, England could bolster their batting and give Bethell a chance at three – a move that would allow Ollie Pope to drop into the middle order, where I think he’s more naturally suited.

Smith at six, Stokes at seven?

Another potential adjustment: does Jamie Smith now warrant promotion to six, with Stokes dropping to seven? Based on form, the answer might be yes. And if they go with Bethell instead of Bashir, Pope at six, Smith at seven and Stokes at eight looks an extremely strong lower-middle order.

India’s XI now looks more settled

India’s selection puzzle seems more straightforward after Edgbaston. Jasprit Bumrah will return, almost certainly replacing Prasidh Krishna. Akash Deep was excellent in that match and should keep his place, fitness permitting. Mohammed Siraj should also play if fit.

With Lord’s likely to offer little spin, there’s probably still no place for Kuldeep Yadav – though his variety may still be useful later in the series.

India have looked the better side so far, and they head to Lord’s with the momentum.

Betting angles and final thoughts

In truth, England are fortunate to be level in the series. India dominated at Edgbaston and should have closed out the match in Leeds too, where dropped catches and two late collapses gave England a lifeline.

The toss could be crucial. Expect whoever wins to bowl first, with plenty of movement on offer through the first two innings. Success may come down to which top order can weather the early storm – and how Bumrah, Archer, Atkinson and Deep exploit those conditions.

Given how the series has played out so far, India at 6/4 looks a generous price.