Three match-ups that could decide the IPL final

The margins are fine, the stakes are high – here’s where the IPL final could be won and lost.

We’re getting the final this IPL deserves. After two months of centuries, chaos, collapses and comebacks, it’s down to the two most consistent and complete teams: Punjab Kings and Royal Challengers Bengaluru.

For one of them, 17 years of waiting will end. The other will join Delhi Capitals as the only original franchise never to lift the trophy.

It’s a huge moment for both teams – and for the tournament itself.

There are storylines everywhere. Kohli’s last dance? Punjab’s rebirth under Ponting and Iyer. I can’t cover all the angles in one piece. So I’ve picked out three key match-ups I’ll be watching closely tomorrow – each one capable of swinging the final.

Kohli vs. Arshdeep

A legend’s last shot?

Much of the pre-game noise centres around Virat – and rightly so. He’s been RCB’s heartbeat for 17 years, and like his team, has yet to win the IPL.

He’s in form and he seems more motivated than ever. He also has a strong record against Arshdeep Singh, Punjab’s left-arm opener. Kohli has struck at over 175 against him, with 100 runs for the loss of his wicket twice. It’s not a mismatch – but it’s a battle Kohli has generally won.

If he gets on top of Arshdeep in the powerplay, especially with Phil Salt swinging hard at the other end, RCB could get off to a flier.

Hazlewood vs. Shreyas

Fire meets fire

Josh Hazlewood has been electric. In just 11 matches he’s taken 21 wickets at 15.8, striking once every 11 balls. He’s fourth on Cricinfo’s bowling impact metric this season, which takes into account the pressure under which performers happen as well as the raw numbers. The only pace bowler ahead of him is GT’s Prasidh Krishna.

Tomorrow, he faces Shreyas Iyer, who steered Punjab home with a match-winning knock against Mumbai. But Hazlewood has dominated this head-to-head: four dismissals in 22 balls, for just 11 runs.

If Patidar holds Hazlewood back for when Iyer is at the crease, expect fireworks. It’s a high-stakes collision – and something will have to give.

Patidar vs Chahal

Spin under pressure

RCB captain Patidar has a reputation as a destroyer of spin, but he’s been subdued this year. Tomorrow he’ll no doubt be trying to go after Yuzvendra Chahal, the wily veteran leg-spinner who happens to be the IPL’s all-time leading wicket taker.

Chahal is experienced enough to hold his nerve when under attack, and given Patidar’s recent lack of form I’d back him to get his man here. It’s a contest which could shape the middle overs.

Markets and momentum

Regular readers will know I took Punjab at 11/1 before the tournament, so I’m not touching the outright market here. That said, I’m a little surprised they’re marginal outsiders. Their metrics are stronger than RCB’s, and I suspect some of the pricing is down to Kohli buzz and recency bias from Qualifier 1. Worth remembering that RCB are likely to be missing their number one finisher in Tim David too.

If the pitch plays true at Ahmedabad, we should see runs – the market has set the line for first-innings runs at just 198.5, which looks like an opportunity. I’d be especially tempted if Punjab bat first given their swashbuckling style.

Another bet I like is Chahal at 3/1 for Punjab top bowler. His role in the middle overs will be crucial, and with RCB likely to attack him, he’ll get chances.

One final push

For RCB, it’s the chance to end a 17-year wait and finally get Kohli his trophy. For Punjab, it’s a shot at redemption – not just for their 2014 final loss, but for years of inconsistency, upheaval, and underachievement.

This season has felt different from the start. A proper plan, a clear identity, and now, a shot at the prize they’ve never won.

Whichever way it goes, one thing’s for sure: the IPL is getting a new name on the trophy – and a great story either way.